Phillies offseason targets: Downs, Lopez

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Phillies offseason targets: Downs, Lopez

Over the next several weeks we’ll unveil a list of potential free agents and trade targets the Phillies could pursue this offseason, one in which they’ll need to plug holes behind the plate, in the corner outfield and, most importantly, on the pitching staff.

From 2011 to the middle of 2013, Antonio Bastardo was perhaps the Phillies' most reliable bullpen arm. The sometimes-erratic and always-overpowering left-hander made 177 appearances over that span, posting a 3.12 ERA, 11 saves, 11.7 strikeouts per nine and a 1.140 WHIP.

Then, on Aug. 5, Bastardo was handed a 50-game suspension for implication in the Biogenesis scandal, news which basically blindsided the Phillies.

Thus Bastardo remains an uncertainty going into next year. While Jake Diekman made strides in his sophomore season, finding a reliable left-handed reliever is high on the offseason to-do list. Considering Jonathan Papelbon's struggles in 2013 and Mike Adams' injury issues, a guy who can also pitch the eighth inning and possibly close a few games would also be a huge plus.

We already looked at right-handed relievers Edward Mujica and Joaquin Benoit (see story). Today, we'll look at two free-agent lefty relievers:

Scott Downs
Age: 38
2011-13 stats: 11-8, 2.27 ERA, 185 games, 10 saves, 1.248 WHIP
Most recent contract: Three years, $15 million with Angels

Since moving to the bullpen full-time in 2007, Downs has been one of the game's most reliable relief men, boasting a 2.33 ERA in 447 appearances over that span.

Only twice in seven years has he posted a plus-3.00 ERA, and only twice has he appeared in fewer than 60 games. Both occurred in 2009 (3.09 ERA, 48 appearances) and 2012 (3.15, 57).

Downs was traded from the Angels to the Braves at the deadline last season and unraveled down the stretch, allowing five runs and 13 hits over just three innings in his final 10 games of the season. He did not make the Braves' postseason roster.

But before his September struggles, Downs was in the midst of yet another solid season. Overall, he went 4-4 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.477 WHIP and 37 strikeouts to 19 walks in 43.1 innings.

Getting left-handers out is Downs' specialty; he's just mediocre against righties. Since 2011, left-handed batters have a .202 average against him with just one homer, while right-handers have hit .263 with six long balls.

Downs can close if necessary, as he did in 2012 when he briefly served as the Halos' closer and saved nine games.

Downs made $5 million last year, and despite his late-season slump, is still likely in line for a multiyear deal for a similar amount. At $3-4 million per season, Downs would be worth the risk for the Phillies, but depending on the market he could command as high as $5 million.

Javier Lopez
Age: 36
2011-13 stats: 12-4, 2.38 ERA, 209 games, nine saves, 1.255 WHIP
Most recent contract: Two years, $8.5 million with Giants

Two years younger and even stealthier against lefties, Lopez is arguably the best southpaw reliever on the open market.

Lopez is coming off a career year in 2013, when he posted a 1.83 ERA in 69 appearances, striking out 37 and walking 12 in 39.1 innings. He also led the league in stranding inherited base runners, allowing just 10.5 percent to score.

His sidearm delivery helps him mow down left-handers, who have hit just .170 against him since 2011. But he's pretty much a lefty-only specialist, as right-handers have batted .315 off him over that same span.

Since 2010, he's been extremely consistent with a 2.37 ERA over 286 appearances, but his walk rate has been a tad concerning, as he's handed out 3.5 free passes per nine. His control improved last season, for his best rate (2.7 per nine) since his rookie year in 2003.

Although Lopez has the ability and confidence to pitch the eighth or ninth, he seldom throws an entire inning. Just 11 of his 69 appearances last season were for one full inning or longer.

According to MLB.com, there's mutual interest between Lopez and the Giants for a return to San Francisco, where he pitched on World Series-winning teams in 2010 and 2012. Phillies fans should recall the stellar NLCS he pitched in 2010, when he allowed just one run and one hit over 4.1 innings in five games and got the victory in the decisive Game 6.

If he does not stay with the Giants, a "significant number" of clubs are reportedly interested. The Phillies should be one of them, although he could demand a lucrative deal for a reliever, and they've already got Papelbon on the book for $13 million, Adams for $7 million and Bastardo eligible for arbitration.

Lopez made $4.25 million in 2013. On the open market, two or three years at around $5-6 million annually seems likely.

Tomorrow: Corey Seidman takes a look at free-agent outfielder Curtis Granderson.

Tonight's lineup: Struggling Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp sit

Tonight's lineup: Struggling Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp sit

Tommy Joseph and Cameron Rupp, both struggling mightily through the first month of the season, will get Saturday night off when the Phillies take on the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

Joseph is hitting .190 with one homer and 18 strikeouts in 18 games, while Rupp is batting .180 with one homer and 20 strikeouts through 15 games. Last season, Joseph had 21 home runs and Rupp 16.

Brock Stassi will spell Joseph at first base and bat seventh. Andrew Knapp takes over for Rupp behind the plate and will bat eighth.

Daniel Nava also receives a start, playing left field. The first-year Phillie is hitting .346 with a pair of homers and as many walks as strikeouts (seven).

Zach Eflin takes the mound in a meaningful start for the right-hander (see story). He opposes resurgent Dodgers righty Brandon McCarthy (see game notes).

Here are tonight's lineups:

Phillies
1. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
2. Freddy Galvis, SS
3. Odubel Herrera, CF
4. Maikel Franco, 3B
5. Michael Saunders, RF
6. Daniel Nava, LF
7. Brock Stassi, 1B
8. Andrew Knapp, C
9. Zach Eflin, P

Dodgers
1. Andrew Toles, CF
2. Corey Seager, SS
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. Yasmani Grandal, C
5. Yasiel Puig, RF
6. Cody Bellinger, LF
7. Chase Utley, 2B
8. Chris Taylor, 3B
9. Brandon McCarthy, P

Phillies-Dodgers 5 things: Phils face resurgent Brandon McCarthy

Phillies-Dodgers 5 things: Phils face resurgent Brandon McCarthy

Phillies (11-10) at Dodgers (12-12)
9:10 p.m. on CSN; streaming live on CSNPhilly.com and the NBC Sports App

The Phillies' six-game winning streak came to an abrupt end out west Friday night. The beauty of baseball is that you have a chance to start a new streak a day later. Zach Eflin looks to avenge a poor performance from last season while the Dodgers send out veteran righty Brandon McCarthy at home.

Here are five things to know for Saturday evening's game.

1. Two strong starts for Eflin
In his second season as a big-league starter, Eflin is off to a lot better start than last year. 

If you remember his MLB debut, he gave up eight runs and retired just eight batters against a Blue Jays team that could hit the snot out of the ball … and did. Through two starts, Eflin had a 10.80 ERA and two losses to his résumé before coming into his own over the next two months.

This year has been just about the opposite. Eflin clearly looks comfortable on a major-league mound. He's turned Clay Buchholz's spot in the rotation into a positive. He's allowed just three runs and one home run in 12 innings, good for a 2.25 ERA.

The modern thinking is that an ideal pitcher strikes out a lot of batters, avoids walks and home runs, and induces weak contact. Eflin has done all but the strikeouts. His sinker has been marvelous and the Mets/Braves had little chance to do damage against it. Pete Mackanin described the sinker as a bowling ball. That just about says it all. The sinker won't induce that many swings and misses — thus the lack of strikeouts — but he can throw it in the zone and keep hitters off balance.

The Dodgers kind of ended Eflin's season last year. In reality, it was dueling knee injuries that did Eflin in (see story), but the Dodgers were the last team to take advantage of an ailing Eflin, hitting three home runs and scoring seven runs in just three innings Aug. 8. Even the outs in that game were generally line drives. Chase Utley, Yasmani Grandal and Corey Seager — all of whom could be in the lineup Saturday — took the now-23-year-old righty deep.

Being a righty against the Dodgers isn't all that advantageous as the team boasts those three hitters and Adrian Gonzalez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger as lefties who can put up disruptive plate appearances. Unfortunately for the Phillies, they have a rotation full of righties and are unable to take advantage of the Dodgers' platoon issues.

2. Dodgers send out resurgent righty
The first two seasons of Brandon McCarthy's deal with the Dodgers essentially went by the wayside. Now, the 33-year-old starter is picking up where he left off in 2014.

McCarthy has long been one of the more entertaining and thoughtful players in baseball, as evidenced by his Twitter account. The veteran righty has also been a steadily average to occasionally above-average pitcher in 12 MLB seasons, bouncing around teams mostly on the west coast. He posted career-worst numbers with the Diamondbacks in the first half of 2014, but he rebounded in the second half with the Yankees, pitching to a 2.89 ERA in 90 innings despite the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

He parlayed that second half into a four-year, $48 million deal with the Dodgers and that was almost immediately derailed by Tommy John surgery. Going into 2017, he had thrown just 63 innings and made only 13 starts in the first half of his contract. McCarthy was one of many Dodgers pitchers on the disabled list during a 2016 with a record-setting number of injuries for the club.

But now he's apparently back to form and, perhaps most importantly, he's healthy. He's made it through four starts unscathed this year and is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA to boot. He's allowed just 18 hits in 24 innings. Similar to Eflin, he relies primarily on a dynamic sinker that sits in the low-to-mid 90s. He also features a low 90s cutter and an 80 mph curveball, both of which grade out well this season.

Only three current Phillies have any history vs. McCarthy. With his history in the AL West with the Mariners, Michael Saunders has faced McCarthy plenty with sub-par results, going 2 for 13 with five strikeouts. Freddy Galvis is 3 for 3 off the righty while Andres Blanco is 0 for 1.

3. How does the Dodgers' bullpen stack up?
Going into Friday's action, the Dodgers' bullpen had a 3.15 collective ERA, good for eighth in all of baseball and second-best in the National League. As a whole, the crew strikes out 10.29 batters per nine innings and has the highest wins above replacement of any bullpen in baseball.

Any conversation about the Dodgers' 'pen starts with Kenley Jansen, one of the premier closers in the game today. He overwhelms hitters with a cutter many consider reminiscent of Mariano Rivera. It isn't quite up to Rivera's level, but it is still wildly effective. He has a 2.16 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings this season, locking down six saves in six chances. He dominated the Phillies on Friday night.

Setting up for him primarily is righty flamethrower Pedro Baez. Baez pitches with a dreadfully slow pace but great results, striking out batters at a similar clip and takes a 1.08 ERA into the weekend. Righty Josh Fields and lefty Grant Dayton each hadn't allowed a run this year before Fields let one up in the eighth inning Friday while lefty Luis Avilan has been effective primarily vs. lefties. 

While Chris Hatcher and Ross Stripling, both righties, each has a loss this season, they've still achieved OK results pitching often in low leverage situations. The biggest disappointment for Los Angeles has been the offseason signing of former Giants closer Sergio Romo. The 34-year-old has a 10.57 ERA through 10 appearances and has walked as many batters as he's struck out. If the Phillies get to face Romo in a big situation this weekend, it'll be a tremendous opportunity to do some damage.

4. Players to watch
Phillies: Freddy Galvis takes a 10-game hitting streak into action on Saturday night. Not only does he have good numbers off McCarthy, he's also simply off to the best start to his career. The Phillies' shortstop has traditionally been a better second half hitter but he has a career-best .269 average and .487 slugging percentage thus far.

Dodgers: While he is currently playing corner outfield, rookie Cody Bellinger is the Dodgers' first baseman of the future. Currently the No. 10 prospect in baseball, he had five home runs in Triple A Oklahoma City and is projected to have legitimate in-game power at the major league level. 

5. This and that
• The Phillies went 2-4 vs. the Dodgers last season and haven't won a series at Dodger Stadium since April 21-24, 2014, when they took three of four.

• Frequent trade partners in recent history, the Phillies and Dodgers have teamed up for eight trades since the 2012 trade deadline. Eflin himself came to the Phillies in the 2014 Jimmy Rollins trade.

• McCarthy is typically at his worst in April. He has a 5.01 ERA for March/April in his career, his worst for any month. However, he pitched well the two times he faced the Phillies. He threw eight shutout innings in 2013 and gave up two runs while striking out 12 in seven innings during the 2014 season.