Recent history says the Phillies are finished

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Recent history says the Phillies are finished

It's the third day of June and the Phillies are seven games under .500 (see story). At 24-31, they have their worst record through 55 games since 2002.

After dropping four of five to the Mets at home, the Phils are 6½ games out of first place in the National League East. For a few weeks, the talk was that despite the Phils' ineptitude on the diamond, no team in the division was running away with it and, because of that, the Phils were still very much alive.

But the first-place Braves have won three straight and the Phillies have lost three straight. The deficit is 6½ games, and that's without the Braves and Nationals playing up to their capabilities. The eternal optimist looks at this situation and says that deficit is not insurmountable. But realistically, Atlanta and Washington are bound to get hot. And there's a good chance the Phillies wasted their best opportunity to contend, missing out on a two-month window to gain leverage in the division.

Somehow, the Phils have looked even worse than their record. They've been outscored by 41, giving them the third-worst run differential in the majors.

Carlos Ruiz called Monday's 11-2 loss "embarrassing." The mood in the clubhouse was so somber that a drop of water from a faucet would have made heads turn (see Instant Replay).

We're not even close to magic number territory, but the Phillies sure look to be out of it.

Here's why:

The Phillies are seven games under .500. From 2008 to 2013, there were 44 teams at least seven games under .500 at the end of play on June 2. Only five of those 44 teams finished above .500.

Forget about making the playoffs ... 39 of those 44 teams failed to finish with a winning record.

So you're saying there's a chance?

Hardly. Those five teams were exceptions.

The 2013 Dodgers were one of them. They had a run of 42 wins in 50 games.

The 2013 Royals were another. They went on a nine-game run in the second half.

The 2012 Athletics were well under .500 on June 2. But right after the All-Star break, Oakland won 10 of 11. And for good measure, the A's won nine in a row at the end of August.

The 2010 White Sox won 11 straight in June.

And the 2009 Rockies won 17 of 18 from June 4 to June 22.

Have the 2014 Phillies done anything through the first third of the season to show they can go on such a run?

Their longest winning streak this season is three games. Barring a string of nine consecutive wins beginning Tuesday in Washington, the Phils will reach at least 230 games without being two games over .500. That number continues to grow.

The offense is stagnant. The starting pitching is mediocre. The bullpen has been better of late, but still lacks quality in the final few spots. The defense? Jimmy Rollins has still got it at short, Ruiz calls a game and blocks balls well, and Chase Utley and Marlon Byrd have above-average range despite their miscues Monday. Aside from that, every other spot is weak defensively.

Just doesn't have the makings of a winning team.

Utley said after Monday's loss that he thinks the Phillies "can get better at everything."

He's right. But the Phillies don't have four months to click. They have five or six weeks, and then it's trade season, one that looks like it will favor sellers.

Pete Mackanin will push to add hitter in meeting with front-office brass Friday

Pete Mackanin will push to add hitter in meeting with front-office brass Friday

ATLANTA — The Phillies entered Tuesday night’s game against the Atlanta Braves — No. 157 of 162 — ranked last in the majors in runs scored (591) and were hanging out near the bottom in a slew of other important offensive categories.
 
The stat sheet says the Phillies need more offense.
 
So does the manager.
 
Pete Mackanin plans to make his case for adding a bat this winter — the best fit would be in the outfield — in an end-of-season meeting with the front office Friday at Citizens Bank Park.
 
“Basically, having talked to the rest of the coaching staff, we’re all pretty much in agreement with what our needs are,” Mackanin said Tuesday afternoon. “I’m anxious to hear from (general manager) Matt Klentak and from (president) Andy MacPhail and if there’s an owner there. We’d like to hear what they have to say. We’re pretty much in agreement on a lot of what we need.
 
“I, for one, think we need at least one hitter that gives you quality at-bats.”
 
There could be hurdles in adding a bat. Money is not one of them. All of the team’s big contracts will be gone when Ryan Howard rides off into the sunset on Sunday. The team that spent over a half-billion in salaries from 2012 to 2014 (and missed the playoffs each time) has plenty of money and has vowed to spend it in due time. But that time might not arrive until team leaders believe the club has built a nucleus that would benefit from the signing of a "finishing" talent or two. The team is committed to building that nucleus from within, and there lies the potential hurdle in adding the difference-making bat that Mackanin craves. Building from within requires eventually giving players from the system an opportunity to prove themselves and grow at the major-league level. The front office, still very much committed to a rebuild, will be cognizant of blocking those players (the list includes Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, Dylan Cozens and others) and their opportunities. Klentak has said as much on several occasions this year.
 
Even Mackanin acknowledged that the situation is a Catch-22.
 
“I know I don’t want to block a prospect that has a chance to be a big part of it,” he said.
 
“But at the same time, I think by having one guy in the middle of the lineup or somewhere in the lineup that can take a little pressure off (Maikel) Franco and (Odubel) Herrera and the rest of them could do wonders. You look at when (Matt) Kemp joined the Braves. They all went off. They’re all hitting. They’ve scored more runs than anybody, I think, since the All-Star break. Last year, with (Yoenis) Cespedes, he joined the Mets and all of a sudden they all started hitting.
 
“I will give those examples. I feel that’s important.”
 
A number of outfield bats will be on the free-agent market this winter. Cespedes could be there if he opts out of his contract with the Mets, but he’s not likely to be interested in joining a rebuilding team and the Phillies are unlikely to want the long-term commitment a player like that would require. Dexter Fowler and Matt Holliday could be free agents if their options for 2017 are not exercised. Ian Desmond will be out there, but the Rangers will probably look to retain him. Jose Bautista, Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss and Colby Rasmus will also be out there. Martin Prado is the type of “professional hitter” that would appeal to Mackanin, but he agreed to a three-year contract extension with the Miami Marlins on Tuesday.

Tonight's lineup: With only RHPs left, could Ryan Howard start every game?

Tonight's lineup: With only RHPs left, could Ryan Howard start every game?

If healthy, Ryan Howard is expected to start all three games in the Phillies' final series of the season Sept. 2-4 at home against the Mets.

He might also start the entire Braves series.

The Phillies' final six games are all against right-handed starting pitchers: Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz and Josh Collmenter in Atlanta; Robert Gsellman, Bartolo Colon and Noah Syndergaard with the Mets. That could mean six starts for Howard before his time with the Phillies expires.

Howard's batting average has been below .200 for practically the entire season, but he's been much better since the All-Star break, hitting .259/.325/.598 with 11 homers, five doubles and 25 RBIs in 123 plate appearances (see game notes). He went 0 for 6 in his last two starts but homered in each of his two previous starts to reach 23 for the third year in a row.

Here's the Phillies' full lineup Tuesday against Teheran:

1. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
2. Roman Quinn, LF
3. Odubel Herrera, CF
4. Maikel Franco, 3B
5. Ryan Howard, 1B
6. Cameron Rupp, C
7. Freddy Galvis, SS
8. Aaron Altherr, RF
9. Jerad Eickhoff, P

Matt Kemp is out of the Braves' lineup.

1. Ender Inciarte, CF
2. Adonis Garcia, 3B
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Nick Markakis, RF
5. Tyler Flowers, C
6. Jace Peterson, 2B
7. Dansby Swanson, SS
8. Mallex Smith, LF
9. Julio Teheran, P

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