Pondering the Unponderable: The Cases For and Against Trading Evan Turner

Pondering the Unponderable: The Cases For and Against Trading Evan Turner

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The Philadelphia 76ers
trading Evan Turner this season, regardless of return, will be something
I personally consider unforgivable. However, I acknowledge this is an
emotional and highly irrational reaction of mine, based on the emotional
investment I've made in following the highs and lows—more lows than
highs, if we're being honest—of his career up until this point. Trading
him at this point for me would be like trading an occasionally
irritating family member for Thanksgiving and holiday celebrations—even
if there's a chance it could make the group better, it's just not
something you even consider.

That said, GM Tony DiLeo's relationship with Evan Turner is probably
less of an emotional one and if he thinks it makes cold hard business
sense to see what type of return Evan Turner could fetch on the open
market, it's hard to really fault him for doing so. And I'm not gonna
act like Evan Turner should be untouchable from a basketball
standpoint—there's no doubt that he's failed to live up to his #2
overall pick status thusfar in his career (though considering none of
the other five #2 picks taken since Kevin Durant have been all that good
thusfar either, maybe it's on us for having unreasonable expectations),
and if they don't trade him, the Sixers are gonna have to make some
tough decisions about his future in the years to come.

So in the interest of fairness and objectivity, I've decided to
present both sides of the case when it comes to the prospect of trading
away the Extraterrestrial. My mind won't be swayed on this one, but
check out the two sides of the argument and let me know if you think it
might actually be a good time to send him on his way.

THE CASE FOR TRADING EVAN TURNER:

1. He's still extremely inefficient as a scorer.
Evan is averaging a career-high 13.7 points a game this season, on 43%
shooting, both of which are acceptable numbers considering Evan's
position on the floor and on this team. But if you look a level or two
deeper, the inefficiencies in his scoring become pretty glaring. 82
Games points out
that an absolutely ridiculous 81% percent of Turner's shots come on
jumpers, far too many for a small forward. But the reason for that may
be that Evan still hasn't learned how to be productive driving towards
the basket—Zach Lowe of Grantland notes that the Sixers average less than a point per possession when ET drives, the second-worst such number among tracked players.

And, of course, like pretty much everyone on the Sixers, Evan
doesn't get to the free-throw line. His per-36-minutes average of 2.5
FTAs is pretty well in line with the rate of his first two seasons,
showing a lack of improvement in that are—and he's gotten worse as the
season's gone on, shooting just six FTs over his last five games, with
two of those coming on Saturday when the Bobcats were intentionally
fouling in the final minute. Once at the line, he's shooting just under
75%—not terrible, and better than his 68% last year, but not such a
fantastic percentage that it helps compensate for how rarely he gets to
the line. For some perspective, Thunder forward Kevin Durant has made 91
free throws over his last ten games. Evan Turner has made 92 free
throws all season.

Consequently, advanced stats are consistently down on the
Extraterrestrial for his inefficiency. His PER of 13.0 this season is a
career high, but still below-average for the league, and according to
Offensive Win Shares, Evan's offensive production has actually cost the
Sixers a tenth of a win this season. On a team that already struggles to
score, it's easy to understand why Evan's inability to put up easy
points around the rim and at the free-throw line could be seen as a big
hindrance to this team moving forward.

2. When he slumps, there might not be five more self-destructive players in the league.
Following Evan Turner over an entire season is an exceedingly
nerve-wracking proposition, because you never know when his production
might fall off a cliff—and once he's in the tank, it might be a whole
month or even longer before he gets out. From December 19th to January
18th, he averaged just over ten points a game on 40% shooting, 28% from
deep and just 60% from the free-throw line, where he got to less than
twice a game. And a handful of times a year, there'll be games where he
just gives you nothing, as he did against the Pacers last week where he
went 1-10 for two points, seemingly pulling the entire team into his
vortex of suck.

Is it a confidence thing with Evan? It certainly seems like it—there
are nights where he misses his first couple jumpers and you just know
he'll be lucky to get even two more to go for the rest of the game, and
then there are nights when he starts off hitting a couple easy ones,
grabbing a couple boards, and can feel him taking off into flight,
suddenly untouchable. But for a guy whose gonna be looked on to be the
team's most reliable perimeter scorer and shooter, it's really hard to
write off those slumps when they're so, so hard for the rest of the team
to overcome.

3. He does a lot of little things that make it seem like he might be frustrating to coach or play with. Undoubtedly
it's tough for someone like Evan, a one-time NCAA Player of the Year
and #2 overall pick, to accept the idea of being a role player (or at
they very least, not a star player) on a team that could really use
star-type production. But he sometimes plays with the entitlement of a
star, whether he's standing in the corner with his hand up, pleading for
the ball even though he's probably not the play's best option, or when
he lingers back in transition, not sprinting up to finish because he
expects to be the one to bring up the ball in the first place, despite
the team already having a couple other pretty good ball-handlers.

That's not all of it. He also defaults to takeover mode a little too
quickly, going multiple possessions in a row dominating the ball even
when he's not hitting on his jumper and can't get to the rack on his
own, and he gets eye-rolly and lazes back on defense with the refs when
they don't bail him out (which they pretty much never do, though I'd
argue he deserves more calls than the gets). And his thirst for
defensive rebounds, both because they help pad his stat lines and
because they allow him an easy opportunity to initiate the offense on
the other end, occasionally results in him leaving his man too early on
defense, and at least a couple times a season, causes the Sixers to lose
an easy board out of bounds because he's battling for it with one of
our big men and neither player ends up getting it.

Evan certainly wouldn't be the only player guilty of doing any one
(or every one, for that matter) of these things, but when you're Carmelo
Anthony putting up 29 a game with a PER of 24 on a playoff-bound team,
it's obviously a lot more forgivable than when Evan does them. Partly as
a result of all this, his relationship with coach Doug Collins has been
notoriously up-and-down, and it wouldn't be shocking if Collins OK'd
his dismissal in favor of a more reliable, lower maintenance player.

4. He might cost more money than he's worth pretty soon. Next
year is Evan's last under his rookie contract, meaning that if the
Sixers want to keep him past then, they'll either have to get him to
agree to an extension before November or risk having to match whatever
contract he can land on the open market when he becomes a restricted
free agent in Summer 2014. It's hard to know exactly what a player as
up-and-down as Evan might be worth in free agency, but his people could
point to the 4-year, nearly 40-mil extension inked by the Raptors' DeMar
DeRozan—another inefficient wing scorer, and one without Evan's
impressive assist/rebound numbers—at the beginning of the season as
proof that ET is worth eight figures a year.

Would the Sixers agree with that? Again, hard to say, especially
since a lot of it probably depends on how Turner would finish the year
for the Ballers. But considering the money they already have wrapped up
in Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young (about $20 mil a year between the
two), and considering that if we want to keep Andrew Bynum after this
year, he might cost as much as $20 mil a season on his own, to also add a
$10-mil-a-year commitment to Evan would basically be committing to
those four guys as our team core, with only bit players to fill in
around them. If they think the player Evan is now is they player he's
always going to be, the team might not feel comfortable making that
commitment, and it'd be hard to blame DiLeo and company for their
hesitance.

THE CASE AGAINST TRADING EVAN TURNER:

1. Slowly but surely, he is improving as a basketball player.
His per 36 averages in scoring (13.6) and assisting (4.5) are both
career highs, as is (as previously mentioned) his PER (13.0), all three
getting better from his first year to his second to his third. He's also
gotten astronomically better from beyond the arc, converting at a 39%
rate from deep this year and already hitting more total threes (36) than
he did in his first two seasons combined (25). His turnover rate has
also increased, but only slightly (from 2.2 per 36 last year to 2.4 this
year), showing that his increased prolificity as a playmaker hasn't
come at any great expense to his team.

Of course, these improvements have been subtle, and not nearly as
fast-developing as Sixer fans would probably like. But they are real
improvements, and show that as flawed as Turner still is as a scorer and
basketball player, there's still plenty of room for the 24-year-old
third-year player to get better, and you'd hate to see him continue to
make those advancements while wearing another team's jersey.

2. When he's on a hot streak, he looks like an All-Star. The
flipside to Evan's incredible streakiness, in which he can go weeks
(even months) without looking like a legit NBA player, is that when he's
on, there are few players in the league that can match his
productivity. From November 18th to December 18th—the month directly
preceding the month-long slump I cited in the Case For—Evan averaged
18.2 a game on 46.7% shooting (and 47.4% shooting from deep), drawing
three FTs a game and converting 81% of them. Those numbers, taken along
with his rebounding and assisting (and just 2.2 turnovers) over that
stretch, would easily put Evan into All-Star consideration if he
averaged them for a whole season.

Of course, averaging those numbers for a month is a lot easier than
doing so for a whole season, and Evan is still pretty far from proving
that he can do the latter. But the fact that he can do it for
stretches—and a month is a long-enough stretch that it can't be written
off as a regression-corrected fluke, I don't think—means that at least
the potential is there for him to do it for a whole season. And
generally, when you get a young player that holds that kind of
potential, you hang on to them for as long as you possibly can, before
the situation becomes completely untenable.

3. As much as his scoring comes and goes, the rest of his production remains pretty consistent.
Whether you're looking at one of his month-long stretches of scoring
excellence or total incompetence, Evan's other numbers have stayed
pretty consistent. (Over his best scoring month of the season, he
averaged 6.8 boards and 4.6 assists, over the worst, 5.8 boards and 4.6
assists.) Even on his worst scoring nights of the season—the two-pointer
against Indiana, the one-pointer (!) against Memphis—he grabbed a
combined 15 rebounds and handed out a combined 13 assists, allowing his
on-court presence to not be a complete negative. Throw in a steal a game
and solid on-ball defense, and ET almost always finds a way to
contribute on any given night.

And really, when taken in his entirety, there aren't a lot of
players in the league who can match ET for box-score stuffing. The list
of players averaging a 13/6/4 this season is not a long one—the only
others to do it are Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Paul Pierce and Josh
Smith. Obviously, all those other guys are much more consistent and
efficient with their scoring than Evan, but it shows how rarefied the
Extraterrestrial's level of all-around production is. It's gonna be hard
to replace all of that in one trade.

4. For at least one more season, we've got Evan pretty cheap.
Though he has a potentially big payday coming up in Summer 2014, for
the next season, the last year of Evan's rookie contract only costs us
$6.7 million. That's still pretty good for a young starter, and after
that, the Sixers can either ink him to an extension both sides find
reasonable, or dare him to find better on the open market. The Sixers
still hold most of the power in the situation, so there's no real
urgency for them to deal him at this point, unless they get a return so
incredible as to make the deal a no-brainer.

That of course begs the question—what could we even get for Evan
Turner in a trade at this point? Nobody, possibly not even Tony DiLeo,
has a good answer to that at this point, but it seems like like the
Sixers could go one of two directions with him—either using him as the
primary asset in a deal for a more expensive but more reliable veteran,
or unloading him along with one or two of the team's mid-level guys
(Young, Hawes, J-Rich) for an expiring contract and a draft pick. The
former won't allow us the financial flexibility keeping Evan for another
season would, and the latter probably wouldn't replace his production
for at least another season or two. It's always tough to get fair return
for your player when you're the motivated seller, and the Sixers likely
won't be an exception here.

5. We still don't know what he'll be able to do with Andrew Bynum on the floor.
All emotion aside, this to me is the real reason why you don't trade
Evan Turner this season. Yes, we don't know when (or if) Andrew Bynum
will be back this season, but as we've been saying here on the Level all
season, if there's ANY chance he can come back healthy and productive,
you have to stay the course and continue to plan the team around him.
And as improved as Evan has been this season (in his good stretches,
anyway), he could be even better with Bynum around to play a two-man
game with and to give him extra space on his jumper.

And maybe not—maybe with Bynum clogging the middle, Turner's
rebounding rate plummets and his drives to the basket (along with his
free throw attempts) go from rare to non-existent. But you just don't
know, and you'd hate to see the Sixers give up on this team's
Bynum-Jrue-Thad-ET core—which, with everyone playing at a high level, I
do believe could be the core of a very, very good team going
forward—without ever even giving it a chance. Unless, of course, the
Sixers (again) know something about Bynum that we don't, in which case
none of this really matters anyway, and we should all jump on the Denver
Nuggets bandwagon before it's too late.

Phillies-Rockies 5 things: Hellickson good to go; Franco sits again

Phillies-Rockies 5 things: Hellickson good to go; Franco sits again

Phillies (15-28) vs. Rockies (30-17)
7:05 p.m. on CSN; streaming live on CSNPhilly.com and the NBC Sports App

The Phillies' nightmarish skid continued Tuesday as they dropped a second straight game to a Rockies rookie starting pitcher.

They've been outscored 16-3 in the first two games of this four-game series against a Colorado club that has the best record in the NL and more road wins (17) than the Phillies have total wins.

Let's take a look at Game 3:

1. Hellickson good to go
The Phillies got a scare last Friday night when Jeremy Hellickson hurt his lower back during his seventh-inning at-bat, but they avoided disaster when it was diagnosed as mere stiffness as opposed to something more serious like a strained oblique.

Hellickson said that night and again the next morning that he felt fine and wouldn't miss a start. The Phillies are thankful for that given the inefficiencies of their rotation, which has just 16 quality starts in 43 games, third-fewest in the majors.

Hellickson (5-1, 3.44) was locked in last weekend against a weak Pirates lineup but this is much more of a challenge. Don't expect him to set down 16 of 17 batters the way he did in Pittsburgh.

The Phillies are 8-1 when Hellickson pitches this season and 7-27 when anyone else does. The only loss in a Hellickson start came against the Cubs on May 2, the first of a three-start skid in which Hellickson allowed 12 runs in 13⅔ innings. Of those 12 runs, 11 scored via home runs. He allowed seven homers in those three starts after giving up just two in his first five.

The Rockies present a lot of challenges and one of them is that they've been the second-best team in the majors this season against the changeup, which is Hellickson's go-to pitch. Only the Marlins (.312) have a higher batting average vs. changeups than the Rockies (.286).

(For reference, the Phillies are 28th in baseball against changeups with a .201 batting average.)

Then again, not all changeups are the same, and Hellickson did limit the Marlins to one run on seven hits over six innings when he faced them April 27.

Current Rockies are just 10 for 56 (.179) off Hellickson. Ian Desmond has the only homer (2 for 5, HR, double).

2. Blackmon the Destroyer
Charlie Blackmon, good lord.

The guy has seven home runs in his last five games at Citizens Bank Park. Over that span — Aug. 12, 2016 through last night — Blackmon has more homers at CBP than any Phillie.

Think about how ridiculous that is. Aaron Altherr and Ryan Howard are next with six homers in 15 and 17 games, respectively. Then comes Freddy Galvis with five in 26 games.

3. Fading fast
At 15-28, the Phillies are on pace to finish 57-105. They've dropped 19 of 23 and now have the second-worst record in the majors, ahead of only the 16-31 Padres.

The offense has been completely devoid of life lately. It's not like these guys are going out and playing with zero energy, but when you don't hit, it's always going to seem like that.

Since May 12, the Phillies are 2-9. They've hit .225/.273/.345 as a team for the second-worst OBP and OPS, ahead of only the Mariners.

They've been middle of the pack with runners in scoring position over that span, but they have just 89 plate appearances with RISP, which is seventh-fewest in baseball.

A lot of this can be attributed to the top of the order. Cesar Hernandez is 9 for 54 (.167) with no extra-base hits over his last 14 games. And that vaunted 1-2 in the Phillies' order — a duo which hit close to .350 in April — is down to .282.

4. Scouting Chatwood
The Phillies face 27-year-old right-hander Tyler Chatwood (3-6, 5.09).

He was the Rockies' best starting pitcher last season when he went 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 158 innings. He walked 70 and those control issues have continued this season — 27 walks in 53 innings.

He's been especially wild lately, walking 19 in 21⅔ innings this month. 

Chatwood averages 95 mph with his fastball and sinker and 88-90 with his slider and changeup. He also throws a high-70s curveball.

He faced the Phillies twice last year and went 0-2, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in nine innings. Interestingly, though, no active Phillie has an extra-base hit against him.

Hopefully, the Phils will be able to make Chatwood work tonight and take advantage of their opportunities with men on base. They stranded the bases loaded three times last night.

5. Franco sits again
Maikel Franco and Cameron Rupp are sitting again. Pete Mackanin wants the extremely inconsistent, wild-swinging Franco to sit back and watch for a few days to regroup. He also wants to see some more of Andrew Knapp after a rough defensive week from Cameron Rupp.

1. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
2. Freddy Galvis, SS
3. Aaron Altherr, LF
4. Tommy Joseph, 1B
5. Andres Blanco, 3B
6. Odubel Herrera, CF
7. Andrew Knapp, C
8. Michael Saunders, RF
9. Jeremy Hellickson, P

Bringing fun back: Counting down the 10 best Eagles touchdown celebrations

Bringing fun back: Counting down the 10 best Eagles touchdown celebrations

Up until Tuesday afternoon, many fans assumed NFL stood for No Fun League. And with often-excessive fines for celebrations such as this and that, it's easy to see why.

In a letter from Commissioner Roger Goodell, though, the NFL finally wants its players to have "more room to have fun."

Yes, there will still be no twerking -- sorry, Antonio Brown -- as the league will still flag "offensive demonstrations," but we might actually get back to the good old days. And of course, I wish we could enjoy the creativity of guys like Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco on a weekly basis.

But the Eagles have had plenty of fun on the field in years past and we're all hoping to see more from Carson Wentz, Jordan Matthews and the rest of the new wide receiving corps in months to come. Until then, let's count down the (entirely objective) 10 best Eagles dances and celebrations of all-time:

10. Shady's got moves...
WATCH
LeSean McCoy danced plenty and although he didn't change it up very often, the guy had his signature celebration.

9. ...And Donovan too?


Well, let's not give Donovan McNabb too much credit here. His moonwalk pales in comparison to Michael Jackson and I'm still unsure of who he was imitating with his air guitar in Dallas. Hey, at least he tried...

8. Rip it down, Terrell Owens (October 24, 2004)
WATCH
Alright, can we stop bringing pain to Browns fans?

T.O. absolutely torched Cleveland in this one when the teams faced off in 2004, catching four balls for 109 yards and two touchdowns. And to cap it off, he brought Browns fans down just a bit more, ripping off their sign that read "T. Akes O. Ne To Know One."

Clever? Yes. Smart to mock one of the best wide receivers of the generation? Probably not.

7. Freddie Mitchell: The People's Champ


This one didn't happen in the end zone, but Aaron Rodgers, I think Fred-Ex wants his celebration back.

Although the wide receiver is best known for his catch on 4th and 26 against the Packers, Mitchell once called himself "The People's Champ" and after snagging a long bomb from McNabb against the Cowboys, he showed off his own championship belt.

6. Mike Bartrum doing his thing (September 26, 2004)
Before Jon Dorenbos, there was Mike Bartrum. The guy was a stud -- he played seven seasons with the Birds and not only could he long snap, but he could also catch passes as a tight end.

We don't have a video of this one, however, according to Larry O'Rourke of the Allentown Morning Call, Bartrum caught a touchdown in Detroit in 2004 and was then flagged 15 yards after what O'Rourke termed a "jubilant long snap."

Apparently, this was an elaborate plan by Bartrum's two young sons and the long-snapper told the media afterwards, "No more celebrating.... I don't think coach Reid was too happy. He didn't really say anything. Just that he wasn't happy."

I wonder how Doug Pederson would react if Dorenbos breaks out an end-zone magic trick this season.

5. Fred Barnett's Backflop (December 2, 1990)
WATCH
Now, I don't think Barnett's celebration was the highlight of this play. I mean, wow, Randall Cunningham was absolutely amazing on this one.

With the Eagles backed up inside their own five-yard line, the quarterback somehow ducked under a Bills defender and then hucked a pass 70 yards down the field. Let's pray Carson has some Randall in him somewhere because the guy was a wizard in green and white.

But let's get to Fred Barnett. He runs into the end zone untouched for the score, stumbles to the back, and then proceeds to do some kind of backflop while shooting the ball into the stands. I'm not entirely sure what was going on with this one, yet Cunningham's work pushes his teammate up this list.

4. Vai Sikahema boxes with the goalpost (November 22, 1992)


The current NBC10 anchor didn't last long on the field with the Eagles, but maybe he could have had a career as a professional boxer. Vai showed his skills off after returning an 87-yard punt vs. the Giants as the Birds blew out their division rivals 40-20 in the Meadowlands.

It wasn't much and I wouldn't necessarily recommend stepping into the ring against Floyd Mayweather anytime soon, but who knows? The multi-talented Sikahema might not fare all that badly (yes, he would).

3. Koy Detmer gives the Patriots the "Whuppin' Stick"(December 19, 1999)
Yes, you read right. We're actually discussing the same Koy Detmer that once backed up Eagles backup Doug Pederson and spent most of his time in Philadelphia as the holder for David Akers.

With the game in hand and the Birds' season going down the drain, Detmer stepped in as the third-stringer against the Pats in 1999, tossing three touchdown passes in a 24-9 victory. Afterwards, he told reporters that his hilarious touchdown dance was known as the "whuppin' stick."

It's not like he hadn't done the dance before — Detmer "whipped it" the year prior against Green Bay — but as he stepped toward the sidelines, he flipped his arm back and forth in a raunchy fashion that I still think might get flagged under today's rules. Andy Reid later said of the celebration, "[Detmer's] a beauty, but he's definitely not a dancer."

2. DeSean's "Nestea Plunge" (December 12, 2010)
WATCH
You remember the old commercial where the construction working dying of thirst does a backflop onto a carpet and somehow lands in a pool of water? Well, that were before my time and still doesn't make much sense to me.

But they became relevant again once more in December 2010 when DeSean broke loose for a 91-yard game-breaking score in Dallas. With no one around him, Jackson got to the goal line, turned around with no one covering him and took the plunge right for paydirt.

In the moment, it was awesome just to watch D-Jax mock the Cowboys, yet that was a huge play in a crucial game for the Eagles that season. The Birds took a 27-20 lead that they would never relinquish, and the win wound up being just enough to give them the 2010 NFC East crown.

1. T.O. mocks Ray Lewis to his face (October 31, 2004)
WATCH
I don't think anyone would ever dare try to replicate soon-to-be Hall of Famer Ray Lewis' infamous "Squirrel Dance" — except maybe T.O. Owens never feared an opponent, so would it surprise anyone that he'd rip off the 6-foot-1, 240-pound linebacker's own intro dance with Lewis just a couple of paces away? Not a bit.

With the Birds leading Baltimore 9-3 midway through the 4th quarter of their 2004 matchup, Owens eluded a trio of Ravens defenders to slip into the end zone and give the Eagles some breathing room. And just as he had planned, T.O. scooped up a piece of grass and got right into the motions. Although this one was not original, it definitely took some guts and certainly earns its spot at the top of this list.

Not-so Honorable Mention: Brent Celek is Captain Morgan
WATCH
There is not much to be said here. Brent, let's stick to blocking and maybe the occasional spike. Or at least watch a few ads and practice some more before trying again.