Evaluating Freddy Adus Impact on Match Outcomes

Evaluating Freddy Adus Impact on Match Outcomes

By Gordon Strachan
Sons of Benjamin West

In the short history of the Philadelphia Union, no other player has been as polarizing for fans and soccer pundits as Freddy Adu. Freddy has at times over his career been an absolute lightning rod for criticism and speculation, and recent reports and commentaries have maintained this trend. For a quick sampling read Philly Soccer Page’s discussion on “Fixing Freddy,” US Soccer Daily’s snapshot of the current marker in Adu’s career timeline, and Kckrs’ description of a twitter beef between Adu and Alexi Lalas, who’d referred to Freddy as having the practicality of a luxury car.

Criticisms about Freddy’s play on the field are often made in the context of his comparatively high salary and higher expectations as a team leader and former wunderkind, which suggests that perhaps the measuring stick being used to evaluate Freddy may be a slightly different size than that for other players. This is understandable given that in a capped league, dollars spent on Freddy impact the level of talent that can be distributed elsewhere on the pitch.

Meeting with the press this week, interim Coach John Hackworth reminded everyone that he will make roster decisions that are best for the success of the team. Judging by the roughly 10 minutes of playing time that Freddy played last Friday against Real Salt Lake, Hackworth may not be convinced that this always involves Adu.

Has Freddy’s form slipped to the point where benching him produces a better net result? In other words, are the Union currently a better team without him? These are important questions not only as the team clings to a glimmer of 2012 playoff hope, but also as it transitions toward developing next season’s on-field product.

Analyzing Freddy’s impact on a game and his overall contributions to the Union can be done in a variety of ways. However, it might be best to start with some simple metrics as a benchmark. Before analyzing what exactly Freddy is doing to influence matches, we sought to get an idea of the Union’s success when he is simply on the field or not on the field. How has his presence influenced the outcome of matches?

Enabling this analysis is the fact that Freddy isn’t always a common feature on the field, being utilized in only 57% of available minutes this year. The table below lists Freddy’s playing time in each game this season in addition to the games’ results. You don’t have to be a statistician to recognize the trend, though the analysis and take-home points are limited by other factors we’ll discuss afterward.

When Freddy plays more than half the game, the Union have 7 wins, 5 losses, and 1 tie.  When Freddy plays half the game or less, the Union have 1 win, 6 losses, 3 ties.

Interestingly, given the nature of the attacking MF’s game, Freddy’s presence on the field hasn’t produced a higher rate of scoring. But, the team has performed better in terms of goal differential, which is -5 when he is off the field and +3 while he is playing. Soccer is a game of ripple effects. Alter your defense and you will inevitably change your ability to attack, and vice-versa. Accordingly, there are several ways an attacking MF can influence goal differential without physically being involved in activities such as blocking a shot or making an assist or placing the ball in the net. An understanding of how Freddy is going about helping his team or whether he is reaching his potential requires a more in-depth and nuanced discussion about the merits of his game, but in this evaluation, we seek to open the question as to whether Freddy’s presence on the field has been associated with greater success for the Union this season. By the simple metric of game results—arguably the most meaningful stat—he has.

Numerous factors beyond Freddy’s presence obviously influence the outcomes above, including a coaching change on June 13, as well as other additions and subtractions to the starting XI in a season marked by turnover and change since day 1.  And, there is more to influencing score and outcome than merely being on the field. For the purposes of simplicity, we sought only to explore a single variable and whether it impacts larger trends and provides an indication of his contribution to the team.

Tonight, the Union face Columbus Crew. If Freddy is once again left off the starting roster, the pertinent questions will be: How does Hackworth evaluate Freddy’s game, his influence on outcomes, and his role going forward?

Gordon Strachan is a founding member of the Sons of Benjamin West (SOBW), a group of supporters based in Delaware County and centered in Swarthmore. On game day they live in the "West" endline (Section 118).

US Presswire photo

Best of MLB: Blue Jays beat Orioles in opener of AL wild-card showdown

Best of MLB: Blue Jays beat Orioles in opener of AL wild-card showdown

TORONTO -- Josh Donaldson hit a two-run homer, Aaron Sanchez struck out 10 and the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Baltimore Orioles 5-1 on Tuesday night in the opener of their AL wild-card showdown.

Ezequiel Carrera also homered as the Blue Jays won for the sixth time in eight games. They lead the wild-card standings by two games over the Orioles with five to play.

Baltimore began the day two games ahead of Detroit and Seattle for the league's final playoff spot.

Orioles slugger Chris Davis was ejected for arguing with plate umpire Will Little after striking out against Joe Biagini in the seventh, the third time in three at-bats Davis was caught looking. Baltimore manager Buck Showalter also was tossed after he came out to argue (see full recap).

Syndergaard, Mets pound grieving Marlins
MIAMI -- With time running out in the playoff race, the New York Mets set sympathy aside.

Noah Syndergaard struck out eight and allowed one run in six innings Tuesday night, and the Mets totaled 19 hits to beat the grieving Miami Marlins 12-1.

Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes each hit his 31st homer for the Mets, who began the game with a half-game lead over the Giants in the battle for the first NL wild-card berth, with the Cardinals 1 1/2 games behind.

The game was the Marlins' second since the death of ace Jose Fernandez in a boating accident. One night after a heart-tugging victory over New York filled with tributes to their teammate, emotions were more subdued, and Miami's bats were too.

Syndergaard (14-9) had a lot to do with that. After missing a scheduled start Saturday with strep throat, he threw 93 pitches and lowered his ERA to 2.60, third-best in the majors. He'll return to pitch the regular-season finale Sunday at Philadelphia if needed (see full recap).

Cards beat Reds to tighten wild-card race
ST. LOUIS -- Playing with a heavy heart, Aledmys Diaz hit his first career grand slam and the St. Louis Cardinals finished with five home runs Tuesday night in a 12-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds.

Chasing the Giants and Mets in a tight race for the two NL wild cards, St. Louis moved within a half-game of San Francisco for the league's final playoff spot -- pending the Giants' late game against Colorado.

New York, which beat Miami 12-1, leads the wild-card standings and remained 1 1/2 games ahead of the Cardinals.

Jhonny Peralta had a three-run homer and drove in four runs for the Cardinals, who had lost four of five. Matt Carpenter, Randal Grichuk and Matt Adams also homered (see full recap).

Instant Replay: Roman Quinn injured as Phillies lose 7-6

Instant Replay: Roman Quinn injured as Phillies lose 7-6

BOX SCORE

ATLANTA — The Phillies blew a six-run lead and suffered a 7-6 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night.
 
The Phillies also lost promising rookie outfielder Roman Quinn to a left oblique strain. Quinn had two singles and a double in his first three at-bats of the game as he helped the Phillies build a 6-0 lead. He struck out in the fifth inning then exited the game an inning later.
 
Oblique injuries generally keep a player sidelined for at least three weeks, so Quinn’s season is likely over. He missed six weeks with a similar injury at Double A Reading this summer. The 23-year-old outfielder came up from the minors on Sept. 11 and has been auditioning for a spot on next season’s opening day roster.
 
Injuries have been a consistent hurdle for Quinn ever since he was selected in the second round of the 2011 draft. He has missed significant time with a ruptured Achilles tendon, a wrist injury that required surgery, a torn quad muscle and an oblique strain. Now he has another one.
 
The start of the game was delayed 31 minutes by rain. The game was delayed again for one hour and 53 minutes at the start of the fifth inning.
 
Starting pitching report
Jerad Eickhoff sailed through the first four innings on one hit, no walks and five strikeouts. The only hit he allowed was a solo homer to Freddie Freeman in the fourth. Eickhoff was up 6-1 when the rains came and ended his night.
 
Eickhoff has made 32 starts and recorded a 3.72 ERA. He has pitched 191 1/3 innings.
 
Eickhoff has one more start left. That will come in Sunday’s season finale.
 
Braves right-hander Julio Teheran was hit hard. He gave up 10 hits and six runs in four innings. One of the hits was a first-inning grand slam by Ryan Howard.
 
Bullpen report
The Phillies’ bullpen was tagged for six runs. It has an ERA of 8.03 this month.
 
At the plate
Howard’s grand slam was his second this season and 15th of his career. He is second on the team with 24 homers. He has 52 homrers and 154 RBIs in 182 career games against the Braves.
 
Freeman’s solo homer against Eickhoff extended his hitting streak to 29 games.
 
Tyler Flowers had a three-run home run to lead the Braves' four-run sixth.
 
The Braves came all the way back with a pair of runs in the eighth. Mallex Smith drove in the tying run and Emilio Bonafacio knocked in the go-ahead run. Both of the hits came against David Hernandez, who took the loss. Leftfielder Darin Ruf failed to make a play on a double by Flowers to the warning track. The ball was catchable. The play aided the Braves’ comeback.
 
ICYMI
Pete Mackanin will take his plea for a hitter to the front office Friday (see story).
 
Pitching plans
With Jake Thompson skipping his final start, the Phillies will have to use their bullpen to get through either Friday or Saturday’s game. Mackanin indicated that he may use the bullpen Friday night against the Mets and go with Alec Asher in Saturday afternoon’s nationally televised game. Eickhoff is scheduled to pitch the season finale on Sunday.
 
Up next
The series continues Wednesday night with lefty Adam Morgan (2-10, 5.57) opposing Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz (8-5. 4.41).

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