Villanova arrives at the Big East Tournament as the No. 1 seed for the third consecutive year. The Wildcats won their third straight outright regular-season title thanks to a 27-4 overall record and 16-2 mark in the conference. Jay Wright's program has been nothing short of dominant since the Big East restructured three years ago, going 48-6 in league play.
Now Villanova sets out to defend its Big East Tournament title this week in Manhattan. The Wildcats cut down the nets last year at Madison Square Garden for just the second time in school history and first time since 1995. Three wins this week would almost certainly make Villanova a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and third time in program history.
But it won't be easy — as many as five teams have a realistic chance to win the Big East Tournament. Villanova enters as the favorite, but Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence and Butler are all capable of running the table this week at MSG. Villanova begins play Thursday at noon in the quarterfinals against the winner of Wednesday night's opening-round game between Georgetown and DePaul, two teams the Wildcats beat in the last eight days.
Villanova went a combined 4-0 against DePaul and Georgetown this year and will be a considerable favorite against whichever it plays in Thursday's quarterfinal. My guess is Wright would rather play DePaul, which is significantly less talented than Georgetown. The Hoyas were picked to finish second in the Big East in the preseason for a reason. They have talented players who underachieved horribly this season. Plus, it's always tricky to play a team twice in the span of five days, which would be the case with Villanova and Georgetown following the Wildcats' 13-point win over the Hoyas at the Wells Fargo Center on Saturday.
Assuming Villanova gets past the quarterfinals, a date with either Providence or Butler in the semifinals awaits. Then it would most likely be Xavier or Seton Hall in the championship game. Again, not an easy road by any stretch. But it's one the veteran Wildcats will approach one game at a time, just as they've done each of the past three seasons.
Biggest threat
This would have to be Xavier, which enters the Big East Tournament ranked fifth in the country — two spots behind Villanova. The Musketeers beat the Wildcats, 90-83, in Cincinnati three weeks ago en route to finishing the regular season 26-4 overall and 14-4 in the conference. Xavier has loads of talent and is very well-coached by Chris Mack.
The X-factor for the Musketeers is point guard Edmond Sumner. The redshirt freshman left Xavier's blowout loss at Villanova on New Year's Eve early with a concussion, but was a big reason the Musketeers exacted revenge in late February. Sumner is lightning quick and very difficult to keep out of the paint. Xavier also features First Team All-Big East selection Trevon Bluiett, veteran sharpshooter Myles Davis, big man Jalen Reynolds and a terrific bench headlined by Big East Sixth Man of the Year J.P. Macura.
Xavier beat Villanova three weeks ago, so it wouldn't be lacking confidence in a potential third meeting of the season in the Big East Tournament title game. The tricky part for the Musketeers will be getting there with a possible matchup with Seton Hall awaiting in the semifinals. Seton Hall beat Xavier in convincing fashion just 10 days ago.
Darkhorse
Look no further than fifth-seeded Butler, which will take on Providence in the quarterfinals on Thursday. The Bulldogs have three very good players in Kellen Dunham, Roosevelt Jones and Kelan Martin. More importantly, they play harder than any team in the conference not named Villanova. Wright calls playing Butler "a grind." He’s right — the Bulldogs make you compete every possession on both ends of the floor.
I like Butler's chances of beating Providence on a neutral floor in the quarterfinals. The Friars are more talented and beat the Bulldogs twice in the regular season, but each game was tightly contested — Butler lost, 71-68, at Providence in mid-January. Providence slept-walk through the second half of the Big East season. If the Friars aren't on top of their game Thursday, Butler will make them pay.
Player to watch
I'm cheating on this one and going with two guys — Providence's Kris Dunn and Seton Hall's Isaiah Whitehead, two guys more than capable of pulling a 2011 Kemba Walker and single-handedly leading their team to a Big East Tournament championship. Dunn is the most talented player in the conference. He averaged 16.3 points, 6.4 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 2.7 steals in the regular season. Dunn is a lottery pick in waiting and an absolute menace on the defensive end.
However, no one in the conference was better than Whitehead down the stretch. He averaged 23.5 points in Seton Hall's final seven games of the regular season, finishing the season at 17.9 ppg. Whitehead is a big, physical guard who can get to the basket and shoot the three-pointer effectively (38.7 percent this season). He's also a Brooklyn native who would love to put on a show in his hometown this week.
Best-case scenario
Villanova sticks to its leader Ryan Arcidiacono’s script and takes things one game at a time. For the second time in five days, the Wildcats jump out to an early lead against Georgetown and coast to an easy win in the quarterfinals.
Then it's on to Butler in the semifinals — a game that won't be pretty but Villanova will win mainly because nobody on Butler can guard Josh Hart. In two games against the Bulldogs in the regular season, Hart averaged 22 points and 11.5 rebounds. He'll lead the way again as Villanova grinds out a third win of the season over Butler.
The best-case scenario for the entire Big East would be Round 3 between Villanova and Xavier in the title game, which would also be a rematch of last year's championship game. The Wildcats edge the Musketeers in a highly competitive matchup between two teams with national championship aspirations. Arcidiacono and Hart lead the way after going a combined 7 for 24 from the field in Villanova's loss at Xavier in late February.
Villanova wins a second straight Big East Tournament, Hart wins his second straight Big East Tournament Most Outstanding Player award, and the Wildcats enter the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed for a second straight year.
Worst-case scenario
Following a tremendously disappointing regular season, Georgetown is rejuvenated by the concept of starting a "new season" this week in Manhattan. The Hoyas breeze past DePaul Wednesday night and knock off Villanova in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats then spend the next seven days hearing how they can't cut it in the postseason and get shipped out to the NCAA Tournament's West Region as a No. 2 seed, squandering the opportunity to play Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in the familiar confines of the Wells Fargo Center.