At one time, Joey Bosa was being forecasted to go as high as first overall in the 2016 NFL draft. But as the big weekend draws nearer, Bosa's stock is slipping to the point where several mocks are projecting the Ohio State defensive end could be available when the Eagles are on the clock at number eight.
Can the club afford to pass on a potential talent that ESPN's Scouts Inc. has ranked as the top prospect in this year's class?
That, of course, is only one opinion, but scouts generally seem to be in agreement Bosa has top-10 ability. If he's still on the board, the consensus All-American should be a serious consideration for the Eagles with the eighth selection.
There are some concerns, however. After all, why is a player who's drawn comparisons to Houston Texans All-Pro J.J. Watt supposedly falling off of multiple teams' radars? Before the Eagles make such a huge investment, they must determine whether Bosa will live up to the hype -- provided he's even an option.
Production
2013: 51 TKL, 16.5 TFL, 5.0 SK, 1 INT, 4 PD, 1 FF in 12 games
2014: 55 TKL, 21.5 TFL, 13.5 SK, 1 PD, 4 FF in 15 games
2015: 42 TKL, 13.5 TFL, 7.5 SK, 1 PD 11 games
It's not difficult to understand why there might be some trepidation in the scouting community. After a stellar sophomore season in which he finished tied for fourth in the nation in sacks, Bosa's pass-rush numbers suffered a significant drop-off in 2015.
NFL
Granted, Bosa remained a force against the ground attack, managing almost as many tackles and tackles for loss over fewer games, so it's not as if he didn't make any impact. And to be fair, he garnered plenty of extra attention from offenses as a junior, often battling through double and even triple teams to get to the quarterback.
Then again, Watt is drawing doubles and triples in the NFL, and he's racked up only 69.0 sacks in the last four years. That's the kind of transcendent talent the Eagles are hoping to land at eight, yet Bosa wasn't even that dominant at the previous level, working primarily against right tackles at that.
Bosa turns 21 in July as well, so there is plenty of time for him to continue to develop and grow. Watt didn't exactly fill up the box score in college, either, so that's not necessarily a perfect indicator. In other words, scouts can only attempt to project whether Bosa becomes a consistent pass-rusher as a pro.
Measureables
Height: 6-6
Weight: 269
40-yard dash: 4.86 s
3-cone drill: 6.89 s
Vertical: 32.0"
Broad jump: 120"
Bench: 24 reps
Bosa's combine no doubt contributed to the notion his stock is falling. Forty-yard dash times aren't everything, but his only added to criticisms that he lacks elite burst and an explosive first step.
His size, on the other hand, is very impressive, especially for his age. Bosa possesses a big, powerful frame already, but he'll only get stronger as he gets older and once football becomes his fulltime job. Not only is he a natural at end in a 4-3 defense, but he'll also be able to slide inside and wreak havoc up the middle on passing downs as well. You can't teach that.
For what it's worth, Bosa ran better at his pro day, clocking an unofficial 4.77. He's probably more athletic and plays faster than times indicate, and there's nothing especially troubling about his numbers. Given his ability to both stop the run and get after the quarterback, the versatility to line up inside or out, not to mention what he's put on film, there isn't much need to dive too deep into Bosa's measureables.
Fit
Depth Chart
DE: Vinny Curry, Connor Barwin, Brandon Graham, Marcus Smith, Bryan Braman, Steven Means, Travis Long
DT: Fletcher Cox, Bennie Logan, Beau Allen, Taylor Hart, Travis Raciti
The Eagles certainly aren't hurting for help along the defensive line, particularly off the edge where they currently have a solid three-man rotation. It's worth noting, however, that the only end the club is tied to financially beyond 2016 is Curry, which means if things don't work out with Barwin or Graham, there could be an opening.
The question is whether Bosa is the right fit for defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's wide-nine, in which he would be lining up further away from the quarterback than in traditional four-man fronts. That's not to suggest Bosa would be ineffective, but it would certainly put his quickness and athleticism to the test.
Ultimately, Bosa is the type of athlete who could probably find a home in any system, or at least that would be the expectation. A top-10 talent is supposed be able to win on the outside with a combination of speed, power and savvy. Regardless, it's worth asking whether the wide nine is really for him.
The pick?
It's difficult to imagine Bosa falling out of the top five, let alone be there when the Eagles are on the clock, but were that to happen, he would be hard to pass up.
As for the comparisons to Watt, they're obviously unfair and practically impossible to match. Scouting reports were a tad more realistic. Lance Zierlein for NFL.com compares Bosa to Washington's Ryan Kerrigan, while Dane Brugler for CBSSports.com went with the recently retired Jared Allen. Both are Pro Bowlers, but at the eighth pick, he'd better be closer to the Hall of Fame-caliber Allen on the spectrum.
If Bosa were to make it to eight, obviously there must be a reason, which would only further beg the question whether he's really the right fit. That being said, it would make for an intriguing few minutes until the pick was in.