Phillies (0-1) at Reds (1-0)
7:10 p.m. on CSN
The Phillies resume their season-opening series in Cincinnati tonight after having the standard first-week off day following Game 1.
Here are five game notes to get you set for the action:
1. Nola's season debut
Aaron Nola makes the first start of his sophomore season tonight at Great American Ballpark. There was some thought this spring he'd have started on opening day, but the Phillies instead scheduled Nola to pitch the second game, which also allows him to start the home opener Monday against San Diego.
Nola arrived in the majors to great expectations last summer. He didn't disappoint, going 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 starts. His fastball command was as advertised (19 walks in 77⅔ IP) and he missed more bats than anticipated, striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings.
Areas in which Nola struggled were against lefties and on first pitches of at-bats. Other teams and hitters knew the book on him, that he likes to attack the zone early, and so they went after plenty of first pitches. Nola's opponents last season went 19 for 44 (.432) with a double and five homers when putting the ball in play on the first pitch.
Left-handed hitters, meanwhile, batted .310/.360/.474 against Nola for a batting average 98 points, an OBP 100 points higher and a slugging percentage 116 points higher than righties had.
MLB
Given the Reds' top two power threats hit from the left side, tonight's game should tell us a bit about where Nola is in the development and adjustment process. Improving his changeup was a focal point of the offseason and of spring training and Nola liked the way he commanded the pitch last Friday in his final start of the spring.
Nola did not face the Reds last season.
2. A sign of what's to come?
The Phillies' 6-2 loss on opening day sure followed the model many foresaw for the 2016 Phillies: decent starting pitching, no offense, bad bullpen.
Jeremy Hellickson pitched a gem, allowing just three hits, no walks and no earned runs over six innings. But he received just two runs of support, and the relievers that entered behind him had no wiggle room and little success. Jeanmar Gomez pitched a quiet seventh inning, but the combination of David Hernandez, James Russell and Hector Neris put six men on base in the eighth and allowed five runs to score.
Manager Pete Mackanin was asked after the game whether he considered leaving Hellickson in longer or extending Gomez to a second inning. His response that the Phillies need to find a late-game bullpen formula made sense, though. The Phils paid Hernandez $3.9 million to get these kinds of outs. After a shaky and banged-up spring, he didn't look impressive at all in the opener, inviting again the question of who will close if the Phillies hold a ninth-inning lead tonight.
3. Different lineup
Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz started Monday in what's sure to be their final opening day with the Phillies. But neither will get the start tonight against Reds left-hander Brandon Finnegan.
Darin Ruf will start at first base as the Phillies go with a true platoon at the position. And Cameron Rupp, who will get more work in 2016 than Ruiz, will catch Nola (see lineups).
Ruf, now 29, still faces the same questions he faced when he debuted in the majors five years ago. Is he an everyday player? Is he getting enough playing time?
Big-picture items aside, Ruf last season earned himself a lineup spot vs. lefties. In 97 at-bats against southpaws, he hit .371 with a 1.107 OPS, homering eight times and totaling 12 extra-base hits.
Rupp, 27, also hit well against lefties in 2015, going 20 for 66 (.303) with nine extra-base hits, including three home runs. Against lefties, Rupp had seven walks and 12 strikeouts; against righties, he had 17 BBs and 59 K's.
4. Scouting Finnegan
Like Nola, Finnegan was a first-round draft pick in 2014 who reached the majors quickly. The Royals selected him 17th overall, 10 spots after the Phillies took Nola.
The lefty Finnegan made it to the majors as a reliever just a few months later and impressed by allowing one run and striking out 10 over seven innings. That success continued into the Royals' first two playoff series before he was rocked in the World Series loss to the Giants.
The Reds acquired Finnegan, 22, in last summer's Johnny Cueto trade. He made four starts at the end of the year for Cincinnati and went 2-2 with a .471 ERA, allowing five homers in 21 innings.
Finnegan kind of jolts toward the plate at the end of his delivery, which probably affects lefties more than it does righties. He's a three-pitch pitcher, throwing a sinker in the 93 to 95 mph range, a slider and changeup. Look for him to use that changeup quite a bit against Maikel Franco, Ruf and Rupp tonight. Fast forward to the 30-second mark of this clip to see that changeup really disappear against a right-handed hitter.
Finnegan did not have a good spring. He allowed 16 earned runs in 14⅓ innings for a 10.05 ERA. He put more than two men on base per inning, and his opponents hit .344. Typically, spring numbers mean little, but you have to wonder how that kind of March performance affected the confidence of a young pitcher entering the season as a starter for the first time.
5. This and that
• The Phils' hope this season is that Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera see a lot of pitches and set the table for the middle of the Phillies' order. On opening day, Hernandez went 2 for 4, while Herrera went 0 for 3 with a walk. That's three times on base in eight plate appearances, which the Phils will always take from their 1-2 hitters.
Herrera saw 22 pitches in his four PAs; Hernandez saw 16.
Hernandez leads off again Wednesday. Herrera moves to the three-hole.
• Keep an eye on Freddy Galvis the next few days. In the past, he's had a tendency after homering to try to drive the ball and the result has been a lot of weak pop-ups. Galvis was the only player on either team to homer in the opener.
• The Phillies' starting outfield went 0 for 11 with five K's on opening day. Tyler Goeddel will start in place of Cedric Hunter tonight against the lefty Finnegan.
• Former Phillies have fared well the first few days of the season. Cole Hamels allowed two runs over seven innings to win on opening day for the Rangers. Leading off for the Dodgers, Chase Utley reached base four times in the Dodgers' opener, doubled and drove in two runs. Jimmy Rollins hit a game-winning homer in his second game with the White Sox and has already driven in two and scored three times. Jonathan Papelbon pitched a 1-2-3 inning for a save against the Braves. Ken Giles struck out two in an inning against the Yankees, though he did allow a solo homer to Didi Gregorius.